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Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

Yes

25.0%Market probability
Closes
December 31, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET
Volume
802.98 contracts
Bid / ask
17.0¢ / 24.0¢

Resolution rules

If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Inspect the YES and NO price history, spread and public order book in the terminal. Lab strategies can be tested over the available visible price history. Model overlays require a linked game and available model data.

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Market probabilities reflect venue prices and can change. Market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Not investment advice. All markets · Licenses