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Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?

Before Jan 1, 2028

5.0%Market probability
Closes
December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
Volume
46,170.4 contracts
Bid / ask
9.0¢ / 17.0¢

Resolution rules

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Inspect the YES and NO price history, spread and public order book in the terminal. Lab strategies can be tested over the available visible price history. Model overlays require a linked game and available model data.

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Market probabilities reflect venue prices and can change. Market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Not investment advice. All markets · Licenses