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Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?

Before 2032

71.0%Market probability
Closes
December 31, 2031 at 11:59 PM ET
Volume
77.54 contracts
Bid / ask
70.0¢ / 75.0¢

Resolution rules

If the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court reduces, vacates or reverses, in whole or in part, the roughly $25 billion civil penalty imposed on Meta in the district court's October 21, 2026 order, including as later amended or reentered by the district court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Market probabilities reflect venue prices and can change. Market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Not investment advice. All markets · Licenses