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Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

Before 2030

32.0%Market probability
Closes
December 31, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET
Volume
46,151.2 contracts
Bid / ask
32.0¢ / 34.0¢

Resolution rules

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Inspect the YES and NO price history, spread and public order book in the terminal. Lab strategies can be tested over the available visible price history. Model overlays require a linked game and available model data.

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Market probabilities reflect venue prices and can change. Market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Not investment advice. All markets · Licenses